1. Why this BTC dump is interesting, not scary

Bitcoin just flushed from the 120k region back into the Yearly Fair Value zone on Trend Trader.
On the chart, that’s the thick blue band around the mid-80k area – the place where, on a yearly basis, price is no longer “expensive”, it’s simply fair.

At the same time, sentiment has completely flipped.
The fear & greed indices are printing deep fear, social timelines are full of “top is in”, and a lot of traders are capitulating emotionally.

Structurally though, this still looks like a bull market correction into support, not a completed cycle top.

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2. What “Yearly Fair Value” means in Trend Trader terms

In the Fundur Trend Trader indicator the yearly structure is broken into three broad zones:

• Yearly Discount – where price becomes cheap relative to the yearly range.

• Yearly Fair Value (YFV) – the middle band, where the market is balanced.

• Yearly Premium – where we expect late, emotional buying.

Price extended into Yearly Premium, rejected, and has now retested YFV from above.
In a healthy uptrend, this is exactly where you want to start looking for continuation longs: back at fair value, not at the euphoric highs.

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3. Market Sentiment B: reading the small waves

Now look at Market Sentiment B under the chart:

• After the aggressive selloff, we start to see smaller bearish waves losing strength.

• Momentum pivots are printing – those signals that mark exhaustion in the current leg.

• The histogram is no longer expanding aggressively; it’s starting to curl, telling us the downside impulse is slowing.

For my system, I don’t buy just because price is at a level.
I want location + confirmation:

1. Location = retest of Yearly Fair Value.

2. Confirmation = smaller MSB waves, momentum pivots, and a slowdown in bearish pressure.

Right now, BTC has both.

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4. Building a continuation long from this zone

Here’s how I think about trading this, step by step.
This is not financial advice – it’s a walkthrough of my own process.

1. Bias: As long as Bitcoin holds above Yearly Fair Value, the higher-timeframe bias stays bullish. I treat this as a continuation pullback, not a full reversal.

2. Invalidation: My idea is wrong if we start closing cleanly below YFV into the Yearly Discount band and MSB flips back into strong, expanding bearish waves.

3. Entry timing:

   • I start scaling in when MSB prints bullish pivots or small higher lows while price is sitting inside or just above the YFV band.

   • For precision, this can be refined on lower timeframes (4H / 1H) using the same MSB logic: want to see momentum turning up from oversold, not still free-falling.

4. Position sizing:

   • I size the first entries small (test size).

   • If price holds and MSB confirms with a second push higher, I add size.

   • I avoid high leverage in this zone; the goal is to participate in the next leg of the trend, not to gamble on a single candle.

5. Targets:

   • First target is a move back into the monthly fair value / initial resistance band where the last breakdown started.

   • Second target is a retest of the previous swing highs.

   • If BTC eventually breaks and closes above the prior Yearly Premium levels again, that opens the door to fresh markup, where I then trail instead of hard-targeting.
     
     

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5. Why fear can be your entry signal

The emotional backdrop is the key here.

• Trend Trader says: “We are back at fair value inside an existing bull trend.”

• Market Sentiment B says: “Downside momentum is tiring, bulls are quietly stepping back in.”

• The crowd says: “This is over, I want out.”

Those three combined create one of my favorite environments:
technicals are constructive while sentiment is pessimistic.

Buying when everyone already feels safe is rarely where the big moves start.
The larger opportunities tend to appear when the chart is saying “this is still structure” while the headlines say “this is disaster”.

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6. What could break this idea?

I always ask one question before committing to a plan:

“What has to happen to prove me wrong?”

For this BTC setup, my clear failure criteria are:

• Daily closes below Yearly Fair Value with no immediate reclaim,

• A fresh sequence of strong, expanding bearish MSB waves,

• Or macro headlines that drive a genuine structural shift (for example, regulation that kills liquidity or an extreme macro shock).

If those conditions appear, I stop treating this as a continuation pullback and start planning for a deeper discount leg instead.

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7. How to use this in your own trading

You can use this setup as a template:

1. Let Trend Trader define where you are in the bigger structure (discount, fair value, premium).

2. Use Market Sentiment B to define when momentum actually turns.

3. Place your risk under structure, not under random candles.

4. Size your position based on the distance to invalidation – not on emotion.

The goal is not to catch the exact bottom tick.
The goal is to participate in the next trend leg from a logical, repeatable location with asymmetric risk.

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Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your own risk.